NRL Preliminary Finals Betting Tips: Set Of Six Excellent Value Selections
Minor premiers Canberra were dumped in 'straight sets' and early season Premiership favourites Canterbury joined them last week when they were outclassed by triple reigning champions Penrith, leaving just four teams remaining.
Brisbane and Melbourne take centre stage this weekend before next Sunday night’s showpiece event in Sydney and both games look devilishly difficult to tip, so it should be a fantastic round of preliminary finals action.
We will be hoping our own good form continues after taking home a 20% profit from our six semi-finals tips thanks mostly to KL Iro and Savelio Tamale dotting down in the Sharks victory.
Here is another ‘set of six’ from the best Australian betting sites in the market. Enjoy the games and carn’ the Storm!
NRL Preliminary Finals Predictions:
- Storm -8.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp
- Storm-Sharks over 41.5 points - 1.90 With Picklebet
- Eliesa Katoa To Score A Try - 2.62 With Betr
- Broncos/Panthers Under 49.5 Total Points 1.90 With Bet365
- Broncos To Score Opening Try - 2.00 With Ladbrokes
- Reece Walsh To Score A Try - 2.10 With Unibet
Melbourne Vs Cronulla (Friday, 7:50pm AEST)
After securing a week off with a hard-fought and attritional qualifying-final win over Canterbury, Melbourne Storm return to AAMI Park where they have forged a commanding 10-2 record this year.
Their only defeats were to Manly by two points before that horrific showing against the Roosters that ruined Craig Bellamy’s 600th celebrations.
For the majority of the season, it has been a fortress and that includes a very comfortable 30-6 win over Cronulla in Round 17, one of a staggering 14 times this season that they kept an opposition to fewer than 20 points in a game.
That chastening loss in Melbourne, however, seems to have awoken a beast within the Sharks camp and they transformed their fortunes immediately.
They have stormed into a 12th finals campaign in 14 years and realised the promising potential of last year’s run to the preliminaries under Craig Fitzgibbon.
The Sharks are averaging an excellent 28.5 points for and just 13 against since they last met Melbourne, and on that basis alone the total points handicap of 41.5 looks pretty accurate.
However, we are expecting Melbourne to be too classy on home soil, now that they have welcomed back key playmakers Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen, particularly as depth players such as Will Warbrick, Ativalu Lisati and Tyran Wishart have been playing some excellent rugby.
The Storm should cover -8.5 whilst conceding a few tries along the way, which will help contribute to this match clearing the main total points mark, as six of their last seven home games against Cronulla have done.
Our pick for the ever-popular anytime tryscorer markets across all NRL betting sites is Melbourne second rower Eliesa Katoa, who has scored tries in 12 games this year including his last three and his last one at home to the Sharks.
Selection 1: Storm -8.5 points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Selection 2: Storm-Sharks over 41.5 points - 1.90 With Picklebet
Anytime Tryscorer: Eliesa Katoa To Score A Try - 2.62 With Betr
Brisbane Vs Penrith (Sunday, 4:05pm AEST)
The Sunday afternoon finals have been proving quite popular on television despite the controversy surrounding rest day discrepancies, and the winner of this clash is going to have a 44-hour disadvantage heading into next Sunday.
However, one would be foolish to discount either of these two teams to lift the shield at Accor Stadium at the end of next weekend and they are promising an epic contest with just 3.5 points separating them on the latest betting markets.
Both clubs had been written off as Premiership contenders at some point in 2025 having occupied 11th and 14th places respectively on the ladder at the end of May.
However, their class shone through with Brisbane winning 11 of 13 games and Penrith 12 of 15 since the beginning of June.
They did not meet during that period so this should be a fascinating encounter and, despite the points flowing freely at both ends in their previous victories, the trends point towards a total points mark of 49.5 being too high.
64% of the Panthers’ games this season finished ‘unders’ thanks to a lowly total points average of just 43, whilst this has been a typically low-scoring match-up with only two of the last 11 matches seeing 50+ points scored.
Speaking of trends, Brisbane are one of the premier starters of the competition scoring the opening try in 16 separate games, second only to Canterbury’s 17.
Penrith have just 11, so there could be some value in the Broncos landing the first punch on NRL betting apps that are offering Evens.
There will be tries regardless and one could come from Broncos fullback Reece Walsh, who has a point to prove here having lost all seven of his personal games against Brisbane.
He is in stellar form with tries in each of his last five games.
Selection 1: Broncos/Panthers Under 49.5 Total Points 1.90 With Bet365
Selection 2: Broncos To Score Opening Try - 2.00 With Ladbrokes
Anytime Tryscorer: Reece Walsh To Score A Try - 2.10 With Unibet
