How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites have dramatically widened their odds on Donald Trump completing his second term in the White House – but still believe the US president will stay the course.

The political betting markets appeared to have settled on Trump lasting until Inauguration Day 2029, with some sites cutting their odds on a completed second term to 1/4.

That move came after Trump orchestrated separate summits with Vladimir Putin and European leaders, in an effort to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

It also coincided with the news cycle moving away from the Jeffrey Epstein saga and Trump successfully pushing through his trillion-dollar spending bill.

But there appears no sign of the war ceasing, while unfounded online rumours about Trump’s health issues have triggered a fresh wave of concern for the president’s longevity.

Political betting sites have opted to expand their odds on Trump staying in the Oval Office until the next election.

Donald Trump Odds

Ladbrokes has nudged its odds out to 4/7 on the president completing his second term. 

Those odds carry a 63.6% probability – a huge shift from the 80% likelihood given to Trump only a week ago.

The change appears largely due to bettors snapping up expanded odds on Trump not completing his presidency, amid speculation about his health.

However, for now there is nothing to grasp on to but mere speculation. 

The White House has denied Trump has any significant health issues and the president has been active on social media, even if he has reduced the number of public appearances in recent days.

Meanwhile, the odds of Trump losing his job in 2025 remain fixed at 5/1, with a 2026 exit set at 7/2.

That suggests a 22.2% chance of the president being ousted or stepping down from office next year.

This seems unlikely unless Trump’s health issues are genuinely serious. 

As JD Vance said earlier in the week, he is ready to step into the job if a “terrible tragedy” were to occur.

Will Trump Cede Power?

Of course, there are punters willing to take a chance on the possibility of Trump ceding power. 

The president could step down on health grounds were he to feel unable to run the country.

However, that seems unlikely. Trump, at 79, seems determined to shape America in his image and would not bow under pressure to resign, even if his health began to fail him.

With a GOP majority House and Senate, it’s also unfeasible that Congress would vote to oust the president.

This is the case even if Democrats win control of the House in the 2026 US midterm elections.

In reality, Trump’s presidency looks pretty secure right now. 

His administration is reshaping the federal government, challenging institutions and rewriting the rule books.

Domestically, Trump’s popularity sits at -14%. That’s exactly the same point it was at 200 days into his first term as president.

He will not care about being popular, especially as the Supreme Court ruled in favour of presidential powers last year. 

Power is what’s fuelling Trump now he is in office. He is effectively unimpeachable.

And yet, bettors are starting to ponder the succession plan. Vance has already made his pitch for the 2028 Republican nomination. 

As vice president, he appears the obvious choice to succeed his boss.

Bookies have him as the 9/4 favourite to win the 2028 US election, with Marco Rubio the next best-priced Republican at 30/1.

Those odds expose a significant issue looming for the GOP: who will replace Trump? 

Vance cannot be seen as the only option, as his polarising style continues to hurt his popularity.

He would probably still stand the best chance of being the next president due to his name recognition – but blindly backing Vance as the GOP nominee would be a foolish move.

Instead, the Republicans need to test the water in 2028 to see if Americans are interested in four further years of Trumpism, or seek to swing in an opposite direction.

If it is the latter, this could open the door for centrist Republicans to enter the presidential race, although they will still need approval from the man in the Oval Office.