Next Labour Leader Betting: Starmer Survival Will Boost Andy Burnham Prospects
On May 7, a series of elections across the UK are scheduled, for which the near-unanimous expectations are catastrophic for Labour.
More than likely, betting sites will see plenty of action as markets regarding his exit date and successor fluctuate wildly. What happens next?
Starmer remains odds-on to leave office during 2026 at 4/6 with Star Sports, but those odds have drifted slightly since Labour’s humiliating defeat to the Greens in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
That drift may turn out to be the calm before the storm which will be unleashed on May 8, but remember, in stark contrast to the Conservatives, Labour have never forced a leader out of office.
As explained previously on these pages, there are many logistical problems in doing so.
Iran Conflict Makes Removal Less Likely
Another plausible reason for the short-term exit odds is the Iran war.
It is often said that Starmer is handling the crisis well by keeping British troops out, but, less arguably, this simply isn’t an opportune moment for any governing party to start its own civil war.
Labour MPs and strategists understandably remember how unpopular the Tory leadership chaos was on the doorstep, and fear a repeat would doom any hope of recovery later in the parliament.
Nobody Would Benefit From Leadership Contest
Moreover, there is no unifying candidate who could dominate and thus avoid a divisive contest. Evidence is also in short supply that any of the frontrunners - Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband or Wes Streeting - would turn the party’s fortunes around in the short term.
Assuming Starmer doesn’t resign, any challenger will need the public support of 80 MPs. That challenger would immediately be attacked for disloyalty by supporters of Starmer or rivals. It would be extremely damaging and perhaps fatal for the chances and reputation of that challenger.
These aren’t mere theoretical concerns. There have been numerous briefings to the press that both supportive and critical Labour MPs are in no mood to force a challenge soon.
So, if Starmer is to survive in the short term, but remains doomed in the long term, (Star Sports offer 4/1 that he is PM at the next general election), how will the timeline pan out?
Labour’s Soft Left Have Upper Hand
Labour MPs can broadly be divided into two factions. The Starmer-led ‘Labour Right’, whose leading alternative candidate would be Wes Streeting.
Alternatively, the ‘soft left’ is primarily associated with Rayner, Miliband, Andy Burnham and some trade unions. Recent developments have all been in their favour.
When Rayner resigned as deputy leader, fellow ‘soft left’ candidate Lucy Powell won the election to succeed her, implying this wing would win a leadership contest. Miliband defied a move to demote him.
Reports claimed the price of ‘soft left’ support was that chief of staff Morgan McSweeney be ousted, and Rayner returned to the Cabinet.
McSweeney is now gone. Labour’s top donor, the Unite union, is now led by Andrea Egan, a Burnham ally.
One-time market favourite Streeting has fallen back to 13/2, damaged by his association with the disgraced Lord Mandelson. As reported previously, Rayner now heads the betting.
Next Labour Leader Odds:
Burnham Remains Key Player
Meanwhile, Burnham’s bid to fight the Gorton and Denton by-election (supported by Rayner) was blocked. Polling analysis since showed he would have held the seat for Labour.
Now, Starmer is out on the campaign trail alongside both Rayner and Burnham.
Furthermore, Politics Home reports that Burnham is rapidly building support among MPs and positioning for a return later in the parliament.
The longer Starmer survives, the more Burnham’s chance improves. As the report suggests, two potential constituencies could become available and, following the Gorton and Denton debacle, it is unlikely his candidacy would be blocked again.
A Repeat Of The Blair/Brown Succession?
Remember what happened the last time Labour were in power? During his third term, Tony Blair came under pressure from critical MPs and supporters of Gordon Brown to name the date of his departure.
He did so and during his final year, the party hierarchy coalesced around Brown to avoid a messy and divisive contest to replace him.
Is this new ‘united front’ the first step of a similarly choreographed succession?
Neither Rayner nor Miliband seem likely to make a leadership move soon. Both would likely support Burnham.
Were he to take over, he may well prove unable to turn the ship around, as was the case with Brown. That reality does not detract from his status as the obvious replacement.
Labour’s hopes of staying in power depend upon holding dozens of marginal constituencies in the Midlands and north of England. ‘King of the North’ Burnham, the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, will be the best bet for MPs in those constituencies.
For 2026 and beyond, try this sequence of events: Starmer states that he will retire before the next election, thus signalling he will leave in 2027 or 2028 to give his successor a short run in the job before the election.
Before that retirement date, Burnham returns to parliament in a North-West constituency.
In this scenario, Burnham becomes a very short odds favourite for the leadership. He’s now a best-priced 11/1 with Ladbrokes. Take those odds now!
Who do you think will replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader? Let us know in the comments below or vote in our poll above!
