North East Mayoral Betting: Labour’s Kim McGuinness Tipped Over Lib Dems
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Betting sites expect Labour to deliver the first Mayor of the North East in Thursday's election, with Kim McGuinness looking like a dead-cert for victory.
Seven councils are coming together this year under a new North East Mayoral Combined Authority (NEMCA), spearheaded by incumbent North of Tyne mayor Jamie Driscoll.
Mr Driscoll is running this spring as an Independent after being barred from running for Labour.
Ms McGuinness secured the party candidacy and is now leading the battle with Mr Driscoll for the hot seat.
Liberal Democrat Aidan King also appears to have an outside chance of winning this election, perhaps if the Labour vote is split between Ms McGuinness and Mr Driscoll.
However, UK bookmakers reckon there’s almost no chance of Conservative hopeful Guy Renner-Thompson securing the mayoral position, although he is priced ahead of Reform UK’s Paul Donaghy.
Betting on the North East mayor has been going for some while now as the clock ticks down to May 2. And there is still time for some significant price shifts in the market.
North East Mayor Betting
There are three viable contenders for the North East mayoralty, although in reality this is a two-horse race.
Here’s a look at each of the candidates and how Coral have priced them up:
Kim McGuinness – Labour
Labour’s hopes rest on Ms McGuinness, the current Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for Northumbria.
Ms McGuinness is a popular choice for many voters who are ready to back Labour in these local elections.
Her manifesto commitments include an ‘Angel Network’ transport system, investing in green jobs, and returning “full control of post-16 education, careers services and Job Centres”.
Labour have been polling well in the North East for quite some time and the reality is many voters will back the party, regardless of the candidate.
Ms McGuinness is well priced at 4/11 to win with political betting sites.
Jamie Driscoll – Independent
Mr Driscoll is well liked in the North East following his stint as mayor of North of Tyne.
He hasn’t wasted any time setting up as an independent and boasts a “war chest” of more than £142,000 to spend on this campaign.
He was blocked from standing in this election by those higher up in the Labour party and he could well cost his former employers here.
At 2/1, Mr Driscoll is well priced with the bookies. He has pledged to fund a “Youth Voice” programme to improve arts and youth provisions across towns and villages in the region.
He also claims to be winning over Tories in the battle against Ms McGuinness.
Mr Driscoll is also pledging to address transport issues in a similar vein to Labour’s candidate.
There isn’t a huge amount to split the pair in terms of vision and, with £1.4bn worth of public funds to play with, either would make a huge impact on the North East.
Aidan King – Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems are seeking to benefit from Tory dissatisfaction and distrust of Labour at the May local elections.
Aidan King is a physician at Newcastle’s Royal Victoria Infirmary and a former Castle ward councillor.
An on-shore wind farm across higher lands in Northumberland and County Durham and a “house building renaissance” are his core pledges.
He is also considering ways the mayoralty could help fund local NHS provisions, even though his remit wouldn’t cover healthcare.
“We have not got a lot of money, but I see this as an opportunity to have a regional mayor who can grow over the years,” he said.
New betting sites aren’t totally writing him off and price Dr King at 20/1 to win here.
He could well attract non-Labour voters who don’t see any point in voting Tory.
There’s a slim chance he slips in between Mr Driscoll and Ms McGuinness’ split votes here, although the 4.8% probability suggests this is unlikely.
Best Of The Rest
Mr Renner-Thompson and Green candidate Andrew Gray both sit at 66/1 to win the North East mayoral election.
The Tories are not polling well in the region. YouGov predicts they could lose all their seats gained at the last general election. They won’t lose all their local council seats but could suffer serious damage.
It’s highly unlikely Mr Renner-Thompson will claw enough votes here to even finish second. Such is the focus on the current and the former Labour candidates vying for the job that the Tories will be overlooked.
The same goes for the Greens, who didn’t have a candidate in the 2019 North of Tyne mayoral election and who have just 12 council seats across the North East’s seven councils.
Mr Gray’s top policy pledge were he to become mayor is to insulate cold homes.
Finally, Reform UK’s Paul Donaghy appears to be completely out of the race at 100/1.
Reform is enjoying a nationwide surge in support as voters drift away from the Tories now that Brexit has been delivered.
However, Mr Donaghy is – like the Greens and Conservatives – struggling for traction in a race between two left-wing candidates. His odds may even drift further between now and polling day.
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