Monday Night Football Picks: Do Tom Brady and the Buccaneers Want to Win the Division?

Article By John Ryan

Url copied!

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

Last Updated: Dec 5^th, 2022

© USA Today

Here is my Week 13 Monday Night Football Football NFL bets that I will take to the window. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game. 

Here are Monday Night Football Prop Bets to Consider

For the season, player prop bets are 69-48 for 59% winning bets averaging a +237 wager, making $2,063 per $50 bet.

Established 2013

Caesars Sportsbook Bonus

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Promo Code: GAMBLING1000

Bet Now

Must be 21+ and present in OH. New users and first wager only. Must register with eligible promo code. Maximum bet credit $1,000. Must be used within 14 days of receipt. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Void where prohibited. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Buccaneers -3 | Total: 41.5 points

I am betting the Buccaneers minus the three points as offered at Caesars.

If the playoffs started right now, only the Buccaneers at 5-6 would get a berth from the NFC South.

So, in a rare twist of fate, these two losing record teams (the Saints are 4-8) have a lot on the line when they meet tonight.

What are the Betting Lines Telling Us?

Before the season, the Circa Sportsbook opened this game with the Bucs favored by 6.5 points and has since seen steady price decline to the current 3-point level. 

Overall, the number of tickets bet on each team is even at 50% each, but 80% of the total take has been on the Saints. However, the current 3-point price makes the Bucs an attractive betting opportunity.

The Saints' offense has been anemic at best this season and the team is coming off a 13-0 shutout loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who have the best defense in the NFC. 

The Saints have averaged a horrid 12.3 points per game over their last three games and will be going up against a Bucs defense ranking fifth in scoring defense, allowing 18.5 points per game and sixth in points per play ratio allowed at .293. 

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady ranks first in the NFL, throwing an interception on just .64% of his pass attempts. I expect him to have a huge night against a Saints defense that ranks last in the NFL by getting an interception on only .53% of the passes thrown on the season.

Situational Trends and Angles

• Saints coach Dennis Allen is 9-21 against the spread in games played on grass for his career.
• Teams that scored three or fewer points in their previous game (Saints) and now playing on Monday night, lined between the 3’s, are 1-6 ATS
• Teams facing a divisional foe on Monday night and playing with same-season revenge, having lost as a home underog are 3-7 ATS.

Updated by

Url copied!

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Dec 5^th, 2022

Share:

Url copied!