Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
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UK betting sites have nudged their odds on Joe Biden winning the next US presidential election following fresh polling into the swing states that could decide the vote this autumn.
Mr Biden, 81, is lagging a point behind rival Donald Trump in the national polls and faces an almighty battle to secure a second term.
Bookmakers expect him to complete his first four years in office despite concerns over his age and senility along the way.
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The president is all-but assured the Democratic nomination this year and has hit the campaign trail early.
He has been the underdog in the presidential battle for much of the past two years, since his approval ratings plummeted over the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.
Mr Biden has been playing catch-up ever since and it is yet another international crisis that has cast his credibility for winning the upcoming election into fresh doubt.
Joe Biden Odds
Indeed, political betting have begun to widen their odds on Mr Biden winning the next election following a string of polls that show young and non-white voters aren’t impressed by his handling of the Israel/Gaza crisis.
Mr Trump leads Mr Biden in the five swing states of Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin is the only key state that is currently edging towards the Democrats.
The reason for this appears to be America’s role in Gaza. Support for Israel has cost the Democrats support among young voters at a time when they need their ballots more than ever.
It is perhaps unsurprising that America’s full-blown support has reined back in recent days.
Mr Biden’s odds now sit at 5/4 to win the 2024 US presidential election, with Mr Trump still the odds-on favourite at 10/11.
There is not a huge difference in terms of probability between these two prices. However, it is telling that Mr Trump still holds top spot in the race to be president, despite his own political troubles.
Can Biden Beat Trump?
In fact, the real issue for Mr Biden is not his own poll ratings but Mr Trump’s. It is somewhat remarkable that a political figure charged with more than 90 counts of criminal activity and facing four court cases is still the lead figure for the election.
Mr Trump’s poll ratings have not fallen despite the allegations he sought to use campaign funds to pay off an adult movie star over an affair in the 2000s.
That allegation currently sits in court yet Mr Trump’s approval rating hasn’t worsened.
Mr Biden cannot compete with his rival for the media spotlight. Mr Trump is a pro at attracting attention and is building a strong support base.
What Mr Biden needs to do is hold the centre ground and present himself as the best “not Trump” vote for those dissatisfied Republicans who don’t want a MAGA White House.
The problem is, Mr Biden is struggling to court widespread support. His backing of Israel and Ukraine in the recent debacle over international spending has angered sections of the right and left.
Mr Trump hasn’t made his stance on Israel and Gaza well known, if he even has one.
The problem for Mr Biden is Mr Trump doesn’t need a stance on international issues. His voters are primarily concerned about domestic policy: tax, public spending, and healthcare.
Mr Biden needs to address the domestic concerns of floating voters, while also placating those who generally lead to the left, but who are frustrated by America’s influence on the world.
It’s a near-impossible square to circle unless you begin the campaign now.
And this is what Mr Biden is doing. He’s been campaigning hard in swing states and is steadily outlining policy initiatives for the coming four years.
His vice president Kamala Harris – who is 25/1 with betting apps to be his running mate this time – is doing much of the groundwork while Mr Biden grapples with international issues.
This summer is a crucial period for the president. If he can nail down a few popular domestic policies and help stabilise international conflicts then he stands a chance of winning the election.
But 57.7% of all bettors reckon Mr Trump will win this November – and that’s where the bookies have their money too.
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