How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
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UK betting sites believe Rishi Sunak will successfully prevent a coup from backbench Conservative MPs this summer but is on course for a big defeat at the upcoming general election.
Mr Sunak endured a harrowing local elections night at the beginning of May as his party lost more than 470 council seats and a string of mayoral contests.
Betting sites reacted to the results by pushing the Conservatives’ odds of being in government after the next election way out to 25/1.
However, the bookies refused to nudge Mr Sunak’s own price on him being PM after the next vote.
That is still stuck on around 13/2 and highlights an assumption that he remains the top contender from the Tory party to stroll into Downing Street post-election.
Of course, the bookies also think Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer is the absolute frontrunner at odds as short as 1/10.
But, Mr Sunak does seem to be clinging on to the hope he can turn the sinking Tory ship around before the election.
Rishi Sunak Odds
Indeed, Mr Sunak’s own odds aren’t widening any more. The bookies doubt he will lose the Tory leadership before the next election, meaning he is the second favourite to be PM.
That price of 13/2 on political betting sites is fairly accurate and reflects a slim chance that Mr Sunak could bounce back.
In a recent speech regarding the upcoming election, he warned of “dangerous, transformational” years ahead and argued only a Tory government can steer the country through.
The problem he has, though, is that much of the country isn’t listening. It’s hard to sell the ‘consistency vote’ to a public which has lived under Conservative rule for 14 years.
Huge political upheaval has come in this time, including Brexit, the rise of populist figures, the Covid-19 pandemic, spiralling inflation and a greater focus on identity politics.
The polls still put Labour 20 points ahead of the Conservatives. Mr Sunak’s party is polling one point worse off than when he succeeded Liz Truss as PM.
No wonder his odds have fallen flat and the price of his party to govern as a majority in the next parliament has spiralled out of control.
Damage Limitation For The Tories
There were rumours of a possible rebellion brewing from within the Tory party ranks on the eve of the local elections.
However, so damaging were the results that it appears the likes of Suella Braverman, Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch may hold back on an insurrection this summer.
After all, there appears to be very little hope for a Conservative victory at the next election regardless of who is the leader.
Why would you chance your political career in a leadership challenge this summer, only to be out of office a few months later?
The vast majority of betting apps still price the likes of Ms Mordaunt at good odds to eventually succeed Mr Sunak.
In effect, any movement to depose Mr Sunak has already gone. Attention is now turning towards the election result and how damaging it may be for his party.
New betting sites think the Conservatives are on to lose two thirds of their seats. They currently have 344 MPs in parliament following Natalie Elphicke and Dr Dan Poulter’s recent defections to Labour.
The shortest price is for the government to win just 100-149 seats, at 9/4. This is closely followed by an even worse result – 50-99 seats – at 5/2.
That first scenario would be difficult for the Conservative party to stomach. The second would be a disaster.
The latest general election predictions suggest the Conservatives will win around 85 seats.
It could be as high as 211 or as low as 30, so the variable range is fairly wide. However, it’s indicative of the state the party is in that they risk such a result at the ballot box.
No wonder no-one seems willing to challenge Mr Sunak now. It would be far better to go for the leadership post-election and spend the next five years of opposition building a new Conservative unit.
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