AFL Betting Tips Round 14: Best Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
- Brisbane To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.2 With BlueBet
- Hawthorn -13.5 Points - 1.9 With Unibet
- GWS-Port Adel Wire To Wire Any Other Result - 2.1 With PlayUp
Round 14 of the 2024 AFL season sees four of the top eight sides having their next bye and a couple of key clashes between teams threatening to re-establish themselves as top-eight contenders, beginning on Friday with a game we like from a wagering perspective.
Sydney remain outright Premiership favourites with AFL betting sites following their eighth consecutive victory and, with nearest challengers Carlton and Essendon both having the week off, are blessed with the opportunity to open up a 12-point gap at the top of the standings.
Readers of our AFL best bets blog came out on top for a third consecutive week, albeit with a modest profit of less than 10%, after we correctly tipped the St Kilda v Gold Coast match to be a thriller.
Brisbane Lions v St Kilda, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Brisbane will headline the Friday night game for a second week running, this time in a match-up with a much more favourable history.
After bucking a lengthy losing streak to the Bulldogs in some style in Melbourne last weekend, they’ll be hoping to continue one after defeating St Kilda by a 1-39 point margin in each of the last four head-to-heads.
The Saints ended up on the right end of a very ugly scrap against Gold Coast Suns in the last round, but have struggled to upset the odds regularly in 2024 with five losses from their seven games as underdogs.
But they have rarely disgraced themselves throughout the season, with seven of their eight losses falling within the 1-39 point bracket.
If you also fancy the Lions to collect back-to-back wins for the first time since early April, you could do worse than bundle it up with star midfielder Lachie Neale to notch up 30+ disposals at an excellent 2.25 on Ladbrokes.
Neale has found the ball a bit more often in recent weeks, especially when Brisbane are controlling the game.
In the team’s last three wins, his disposal counts have been 38, 36 and 34, whilst at The Gabba this year he’s averaging 33.6 per game after touching more than 30 on three separate occasions.
His last four games against the Saints, excluding the 2020 meeting with shortened quarters during the height of the pandemic, also saw him touch the ball at least 30 times.
Best Bet: Brisbane To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.2 With BlueBet
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals - 2.25 With Ladbrokes
Richmond v Hawthorn, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
All eyes will be on Dustin Martin at the MCG on Saturday afternoon as he becomes just the seventh man to play 300 VFL/AFL games for Richmond.
‘Dusty’ gathered on Wednesday with the five living members of the club (all but Jack Dyer) he’ll be joining, including Kevin Bartlett and Jack Riewoldt, to celebrate the build-up to the occasion.
The Brownlow Medallist has tasted victory in four of his five ‘milestone’ matches (50th, 100th and so on) despite contributing no more than one individual goal in any of them and 30+ disposals on only one occasion, making us reluctant to back him to complete either the 2+ goal or 30+ possession feats this week.
The star midfielder has been involved in 11 consecutive losses, 10 of them in 2024, and sadly for him we’re expecting another post to be added to the picket fence of defeats, with their opponents Hawthorn on a three-game winning streak, including against top-eight GWS last week.
The Hawks have covered the pre-match line in eight of their 13 games this year, including each of their last six, and come up against a team on a five-match losing streak at home.
Eight of Richmond’s 11 losses this season have been by margins greater than the 13.5 point mark set by Australian betting sites for this clash, adding to the confidence that the Hawks will be able to cover it.
Having recently celebrated his 250th game himself, Jack Gunston is in vintage form and is finally putting up big performances outside of Tasmania, racking up 10 goals in his last 10 outings to average more than two per game in 2024 when Hawthorn are victorious.
Best Bet: Hawthorn -13.5 Points - 1.9 With Unibet
Player Prop: Jack Gunston To Kick 2+ Goals - 1.72 With Ladbrokes
GWS Giants v Port Adelaide, Sunday, 4:00pm (AEST)
We’ll end the weekend with a bit of leftfield play after identifying a fascinating pattern involving the two teams involved.
It concerns the traditional ‘wire to wire’ market, in which punters can back Team A or Team B to lead at the end of all four quarters, or for the ‘any other result’ option that includes changes of leads and/or tied end-of-quarter scores.
Port Adelaide have been involved in more games (seven) than most other clubs this season to see ‘any other result’ come out on top, including last week against Carlton when the scores were level at quarter-time and three starts back when they converted a 38-7 quarter-time deficit into a win over Hawthorn.
Since their ANZAC Day thrashing of Brisbane in Canberra, the Giants have been involved in an eerie five-game streak that has seen the quarter-time leader go on to lose.
In fact, in 2024, they are yet to be involved in a single game where they were trailing at the end of all four quarters, which suggests they should be right in this contest for some time even if not all the way.
Both teams have been dealing with some key injuries lately, with the Giants being hurt more so than the Power, so rather than anticipate the winner of what could be a coin toss we’re opting to follow the trend.
Across all of our favourite AFL betting apps which offer this particular market, it is PlayUp who came out with the best price at the time of writing.
One particularly popular player prop involving the Giants is for Lachie Whitfield to record 30+ possessions as he has done in exactly half of his 12 outings this season.
Just on that alone, the price of 2.05 on Unibet is better than his strike rate of 50% when it comes to this particular market, whilst a haul of 29 disposals is Whitfield’s lowest from his last four games at Engie Stadium.
Best Bet: Wire To Wire Any Other Result - 2.1 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Lachie Whitfield - 2.05 With Unibet
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