AFL Betting Tips 2024, Round 15: Top Picks And Betting Trends
- Carlton -9.5 points - 1.9 With PlayUp
- GWS-SYD Wire To Wire Any Other Result - 2.25 With BlueBet
- Fremantle -15.5 points - 1.9 @ Bet365
Last weekend would have been an enjoyable weekend for many AFL punters with all six favourites on AFL betting sites saluting in Round 14, though there were a couple of nervous watches with St Kilda staging a comeback and Collingwood having to turn around a deficit of more than 50 points to defeat North Melbourne.
The previous edition of our AFL best bets blog saw all three of our main picks succeed but the player bet suggestions fall short, leaving readers with a very humble profit of less than 5%.
Football fans will this week be treated to two top-eight fixtures in the final ‘split round’ of the season, as well as a crucial battle between Fremantle and the Gold Coast Suns as they bid to keep in touch with the finals placings.
It’s nothing at all to do with the results from last week, but after running our eye over the dozens of markets offered by Australian betting sites across the country, we’re anticipating at least two of this round’s six favourites to not only be victorious but cover the line as well.
Carlton Blues v Geelong Cats, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Something has to give when head-to-head dominance clashes with short-term form at the MCG on Friday night.
Geelong were too good for the Blues in Round 7 when Jeremy Cameron kicked them to a high-scoring victory with five goals, seeing them open the season with seven straight wins to challenge Sydney for Premiership favouritism.
Since then, these two teams have gone in completely different directions. The Cats are just one win behind Carlton but are on paper the worst form team of the top eight, having lost five of their last six matches since then.
Perhaps most concerningly, the five teams to have beaten them all started this round 11th or higher, underlining the concerns about their current ability to compete in the finals should they hold on to qualify.
To add to our confidence, the Cats have also failed to cover the pre-match line in each of their last five games, including in their sole win against Richmond when AFL betting apps set them a mark of about -49.5 points by the first bounce.
Despite the anticipated result, we’re looking towards the potential losing site for our popular player bet of this match.
Jeremy Cameron is on track for his quietest season since 2020 in terms of goals, but this is one opponent that seems to inspire him routinely: he has accumulated 34 goals from his last ten games against Carlton, including 3+ in each of the last three.
But with five two-goal hauls in 2024 and only two of 3+, it’s hard to take anything greater than the 2+ goal bet with sufficient confidence.
Best Bet: Carlton -9.5 points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Jeremy Cameron to kick 2+ goals - 1.55 @ Bluebet
GWS Giants v Sydney Swans, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
According to bookies, the 28th Sydney derby is expected to be a comfortable win for the visitors, who started the round three wins clear at the top of the ladder after nine wins on the trot, the most recent of which was a 42-point win away to Adelaide in which they trailed at half-time.
But their most recent wins have not been demolition jobs from start to finish by any means.
In fact, in each of their last three games, Sydney have had to win in spite of half-time deficits; and in the week before that, they conceded five goals to three in the first quarter on the way to beating Carlton.
GWS have won two of their four games as underdogs this season and were 3.70 outsiders when upsetting the Swans in April 2023 by one point, and have a 3-1 record at Engie Stadium this season with Collingwood and Port Adelaide amongst their scalps.
Rather than looking to predict the winner of the contest, we’re revisiting a successful play from last week in which we backed the Giants-Port Adelaide game to not have the same leader at the end of four quarters.
It seems to be a sensible proposition given that the Giants have not trailed at the end of each quarter of a single game this season, whilst at the same time Sydney have been stumbling out of the starting blocks in the last few weeks.
The Joel Amartey 2+ goal play is one of the most popular same game multi fillers in the country at the moment, especially since he has done so nine times this season including in his last five games, and Ladbrokes has a 1.80 price at time of writing that is as much as 30 cents better than some of their competitors.
Best Bet: Wire to Wire Any Other Result - 2.25 @ Bluebet
Player Prop: Joel Amartey to kick 2+ goals - 1.8 @ Ladbrokes
Fremantle Dockers v Gold Coast Suns, Sunday, 4:00pm (AEST)
Assuming Melbourne don’t drop points against North Melbourne earlier in the round, Fremantle will run out onto their home turf on Sunday afternoon looking to reclaim their position in the eight, whilst their opposition could even be within striking distance of it.
But for the Gold Coast to finish Round 15 inside the top eight, and for their finals tilt to have any credibility, they’re going to have to swiftly and convincingly turn around their dreadful travelling form.
Not only have the Suns lost 12 consecutive away games, but they staggeringly even failed to cover the pre-match line in each of those 12.
That includes some hefty blowouts and an average losing margin of 39 points, which made us quite reluctant to go after the bigger price for either a 1-39 or 40+ point margin. Instead, the safer option appears to be to take Fremantle at the -15.5 point line offered.
One Sun who could help restrict the margin is Ben Long, who has kicked 2+ goals in four of his last five games (following just one in the low scoring slog against St Kilda) and has a very efficient kicking accuracy of over 70% in 2024.
Best Bet: Fremantle -15.5 points - 1.9 @ Bet365
Player Prop: Ben Long to kick 2+ goals - 2.7 @ Ladbrokes
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