Eurovision Song Contest: General Betting Trends
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The Eurovision Song Contest is becoming a very popular event to bet on with plenty of markets available with the leading UK betting sites.
Besides betting on the overall winner, markets are available on finishing in the top five/10, which Scandinavian country will finish highest and who will be the leading Balkan country.
Many people tune in to the Eurovision Song Contest just to watch the voting to see where each country's '12 points' go.
We take a look at some of the trends we've noticed ahead of the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest in Malmo.
Greece And Cyprus Are The Most Predictable Part Of Eurovision
The more things change in the Eurovision Song Contest, the more they stay the same.
Cyprus and Greece have both come through their semi-finals, Cyprus on Tuesday night and Greece two nights later, so one of Eurovision’s biggest trends is likely to continue in Saturday's final.
When it comes to one country giving another the most maximum points, Cyprus and Greece are top of the list.
Cyprus have given Greece ‘12 points’ a record 25 times, and Greece have reciprocated 18 times.
It would probably have been more had Cyprus not missed the final seven times in the last 15 contests.
Both nations will probably give each other 12 points in the final, where the biggest shock of the night would be if their maximum points went elsewhere.
Greece are well down the market on specials betting sites to be crowned Eurovision champions with best-priced odds around 175/1, while Cyprus are priced around 500/1 to win their second title.
The Importance Of The Singing Order
A lot is made of the draw to determine the running order for the final. Is it best to sing later so the song is still fresh in the minds of juries, or is it more beneficial to sing early while the minds of each country’s jury are fresh?
We've analysed the singing order positions from all the winners over the years - and those finishing last.
Following the removal of Netherlands from tonight's final, a total of 25 countries will now contest this year's Eurovision and the singing order has been amended accordingly.
More winners (seven) have come from singing 17th in the running order than any other position. Finland were initially drawn seventh, but after the changes this morning, they are sixth and Spain are seventh.
Loreen was the last artist to win from 17th, when she won for Sweden in 2012 singing ‘Euphoria’. Last year, Loreen sang ninth on her way to a second Eurovision victory in Liverpool.
Positions eight (Estonia), nine (Ireland) and 14 (Italy) have each produced five winners. At the opposite end of the spectrum, positions two (Ukraine), 16 (Finland) and 25 (Austria) have yet to produce a winner.
The number 13 is particularly unlucky in the history of the Eurovision Song Contest, which as the table below shows, was not good news for the UK's Olly Alexander when the draw was initially made.
However, following the decision to disqualify the Netherlands, the UK are now 12th and Norway are now 13th.
Nine times, acts singing 13th have finished in last place. Malik Harris was the most recent performer to finish last when he did so for Germany in 2022, gaining just six total points.
However, three acts have been successful from singing 13th, which is more than can be said for singing second.
Not only has a winner yet to emerge from being second on the stage, but the last-placed nation has come from this position nine times. Good luck to Ukraine on Saturday night.
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Spain Look To End 54 Years Of Pain
Only the UK, France and Germany have appeared at more Eurovision Song Contests than Spain, but their record is dismal.
Two wins is all they have to show for their endeavours in 62 contests, but those victories came in back-to-back years in 1968 and in 1969 when they last hosted the competition.
Since then, it’s been 54 years of pain for Spain. Chanel’s third-placed finish with ‘SloMo’ in 2022 was a rare highlight.
That was the first time Spain had finished in the top five since 1995, when Jan Johansen finished third with 'Se Pa Mej'.
Singing in Spanish might be a reason why they have struggled to win votes year after year, but that doesn’t look like changing anytime soon.
This year Nebulossa will take to the stage in Malmo to sing ‘Zorra’ in Spanish, but new betting sites aren't giving the song much hope with best-priced odds of 500/1.
Italy The In-Form Nation Ahead Of Malmo
Form is not something you associated with the Eurovision Song Contest. Every year, the acts change and the genre of music chosen by each country differs.
Therefore, to be consistently challenging for the top spot deserves a lot of credit. Italy go into the 2024 contest as the in-form country.
The Italians are the only nation to have registered a top-six finish in each of the last six Eurovisions, amassing a total of 2,256 points in the process.
Country | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Total |
Italy | 334 (6th) | 308 (5th) | 472 (2nd) | 524 (1st) | 268 (6th) | 350 (4th) | 2,256 |
Sweden | 344 (5th) | 274 (7th) | 334 (5th) | 109 (14th) | 438 (4th) | 583 (1st) | 2,082 |
Ukraine | 36 (24th) | 130 (17th) |
| 364 (5th) | 631 (1st) | 243 (6th) | 1,404 |
Portugal | 758 (1st) | 39 (26th) |
| 153 (12th) | 207 (9th) | 59 (23rd) | 1,216 |
Norway | 158 (10th) | 144 (15th) | 331 (6th) | 75 (18th) | 182 (10th) | 268 (5th) | 1,158 |
That includes a famous win in 2021 when rockers Måneskin finished 25 points clear of France at the top of the leaderboard with the song ‘Zitti e Buoni’ which translates to ‘Quiet And Well Behaved’.
Sweden are next on the list with a total of 2,082 points in the last six competitions, thanks to four top-five finishes in the last six contests, including a win last year in Liverpool.
Ukraine are third in the form guide with a win sandwiched between a fifth and a sixth place finish.
Italy are among the favourites on betting apps to win the country's fourth Eurovision title in Malmo.
Germany The Worst Of The Big 5
The UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are the five nations who contribute the most financially to the production of the Eurovision Song Contest every year.
They have the biggest say in how the contest is organised, and by investing so much into the Eurovision, they tweak the rules to suit them and to give them a better chance of success.
Since becoming the ‘Big 5’ in 2011, one win is all they have to show for their efforts. Another failure in Malmo could possibly lead to more changes.
This year, the ‘Big 5’ will get to sing their songs in their entirety on the night of the semi-finals in the hope that it leads to more points on the night of the final.
Of the ‘Big 5’ Germany have got the least return from their investment with just 662 points in 12 contests which works out at an average of 55.2 points per year.
The UK fare slightly better with an average of 75.2 points per year. Italy leads the way in the ‘Big 5’ table with an average points total (including televoting) of 260.1 points per year.
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