BETTING ODDS: If Joe Biden Steps Aside, Who Replaces Him?

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Larry Henry

Last Updated: Jul 2^nd, 2024

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BETTING ODDS: If Joe Biden Steps Aside, Who Replaces Him?

In the wake of President Joe Biden’s heavily criticized first debate performance, his family met Sunday and decided he is staying in the race, despite calls for him to step aside.

Over the weekend, First Lady Jill Biden, son Hunter Biden and their grandchildren met at Camp David and urged the president to remain in the race, according to CNN.

Biden, a Democrat, is set to face Republican former President Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 general election. Both political parties are scheduled to hold their conventions this summer to make the candidate nominations official.

Biden is running on a ticket with current Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has said he has decided on a running mate, but he has not made that name public.

'Disastrous' Debate

Even during the debate, and immediately afterward, Biden began to face a storm of criticism on social media sites and from political pundits for his poor performance. The debate was held at the CNN headquarters in Atlanta.

In calling for the 81-year-old Biden to withdraw from the race, The New York Times editorial board wrote that Biden “struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term.” The newspaper has called his June 27 debate performance “disastrous.”

“He struggled to respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable for his lies, his failures and his chilling plans," the newspaper wrote. "More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence.”

As The Hill reported, The New York Times is one of several major media outlets calling for Biden to drop out.

On Monday, USA Today published poll numbers indicating that “voters dislike both major candidates, but more than 4 in 10 Democrats say the president should be replaced as the party's presidential nominee.”

The newspaper added, “President Joe Biden’s core support has been shaken by his stumbling performance in last week's debate, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, fueling a furor over whether he should continue his candidacy.”

At the same time, several high-profile Democrats, including former President Barack Obama and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have expressed support for Biden’s continued candidacy.

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What Happens If The President Steps Aside?

If Biden drops out, several steps would have to occur for a replacement to be selected in time for the November general election. On its website, USA Today outlines those steps, including Biden’s possible withdrawal before or after the Democratic National Convention set for Aug. 19-22 in Chicago.

According to published accounts, if Biden steps aside, the party would have to figure out whether to go forward with Harris, since the vice president's approval rating, like Biden’s, already is below 40%. Bypassing her could create problems, including strife within the party, some observers have said.

With that and other factors under consideration (name recognition, media drumbeat, preference among Democratic delegates, realistic chance of winning in November, likelihood of accepting a nomination, etc.), below is Gambling.com’s analysis of the current odds for a Biden replacement on the November ballot.