Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
When Vinicius Junior scored Real Madrid's second goal against Dortmund at Wembley, he secured the club's 15th title in the European Cup/Champions League.
But did he also secure this year's Ballon d'Or? Betting sites made the Brazilian favourite for the individual accolade before the Champions League final, and his odds have shortened further after Real Madrid's win.
Can anyone stop the award going to the Brazilian? It's going to take something very special to deny Vinicius Jr his first Ballon d'Or, but there is still a lot of football to play between now and the winner being announced later this year.
Jude Bellingham, who provided the pass for Vinicius' goal, had been favourite for the award but the England midfielder has since slipped to second favourite.
UK bookmakers have the Brazil winger as the odds-on favourite to go on and win the main gong that Lionel Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.
We take a look at the market that has been dominated by Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who are set to drop out of the top three after almost two decades of success in the award.
A number of bookmakers have now updated their 2024 Ballon d’Or betting markets with many players still hoping to win the award.
Ballon d'Or Is Vinicius Junior's To Lose
Vinicius d'Or was the 11/10 favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or before he was in the right place at the right time to score Real Madrid's second goal to seal a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the Champions League final at Wembley.
Obviously, his odds have been shortened after that vital goal and the 23-year-old is now the 2/5 favourite to land the award in Paris on Monday, October 28.
After helping Real Madrid secure a La Liga and Champions League double, Vinicius will be pivotal for Brazil as they look to win their 10th Copa America.
The winger was very much in Bellingham’s shadow during the domestic season and was a 25/1 shot back in April, but he finished the season strongly.
Bellingham Needs A Big Summer To Land Accolade
Jude Bellingham didn't have the greatest of games in the Champions League final, but he did provide the assist for Vinicius Junior's goal.
The England international finished second in the race for the 2021 Kopa Trophy when at Borussia Dortmund but was overlooked for the gong in 2022. In 2023, however, Bellingham secured his £88.5m transfer to Real Madrid and the versatile midfielder has not looked back.
The 20-year-old, who was named Champions League young player of the season, scored 23 goals in 42 appearances for Los Blancos last term as Carlo Ancelotti's side claimed the title.
His 7/2 odds carry a 22.2% implied probability that would have put him ahead of everyone bar Messi in last season’s market.
Bellingham has been one of the key men for England at Euro 2024 after he scored the only goal in the Three Lions' 1-0 win over Serbia. If Bellingham can steer England to a first men’s trophy since 1966, then his odds will shorten.
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Kroos Enters The Market
Toni Kroos' club career came to a close at Wembley as he helped Real Madrid beat Dortmund in the final of the Champions League.
It was his sixth winners' medal in that competition and he will retire as one of the most decorated players in European football.
He is the 9/1 third favourite on betting apps behind his two teammates, but he knows there is very little chance he can move above Vinicius Jr and Bellingham.
However, this summer's European Championship on home soil in Germany is the final opportunity to see him play before the curtain comes down on his brilliant career.
If he continues his group stage performance into the knockout rounds and Germany go on to be crowned champions, then his odds will certainly shorten.
Mbappe Ballon d’Or Odds Begin To Drift
Kylian Mbappe is beginning to slide down the ladder in the race for the Ballon d’Or in 2024 and it’s not hard to see why.
The Champions League was the ultimate ambition for PSG, but a 2-0 aggregate defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals ended their chances of European glory this year.
Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph earned him the 2018 Kopa Trophy. Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.
The French forward has now confirmed his move to Real Madrid, which will significantly improve Mbappe's chances of winning future Ballon d'Or awards.
The 25-year-old suffered a broken nose in France's opening round win over Austria and is expected to return to the starting XI for Les Bleus' final group game against Poland.
If you think Mbappe can fire France to Euros glory and hit the ground running for Real Madrid next season, then now is the time to back him at 11/1 for this year's Ballon d'Or on football betting sites.
Kane Has A Slim Chance At Ballon d’Or
It was commendable that Harry Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a big extent.
Now at Bayern Munich, Kane missed out on a Bundesliga title in his debut season and was minutes away from making a Champions League final. But he was named in the competition's best XI for the season.
👕✨ Introducing the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League Team of the Season, as selected by UEFA's Technical Observer panel.#UCL || #UCLfinal pic.twitter.com/njYgChEOoc
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) June 3, 2024
Despite floundering in the race for the title, Kane dominated on a goalscoring front and should he guide the Three Lions to a European Championship success, then Kane’s odds of 25/1 will be slashed.
He never once got into the top three of the Ballon d’Or votes while at Spurs, but with 44 goals in 45 matches sporting his new colours, 2024 is definitely proving to be another impressive year.
Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues
Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.
He has never won the Ballon d’Or and hasn’t even come close to winning the Kopa Trophy.
There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers.
Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.
The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 100 journalists (cut from 170) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.
Haaland won the treble in the 2022/23 season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.
After losing out to Real Madrid in the last eight of the Champions League and Manchester United in the FA Cup final, Haaland’s odds have drifted way out to 40/1.
Best Of The Rest
It would be a big surprise if Messi (33/1) won this trophy once more in his career but there’s a slim chance of that happening in 2024.
Argentina are hunting down a 16th Copa America triumph this summer, and if he continues his fantastic start with Inter Miami and wins the title in the US, there will be talk of a ninth Ballon d’Or.
In reality he might just sneak into the top three, assuming the European Championship doesn't go to France or England.
Elsewhere, Phil Foden (28/1) and Man City teammate Rodri (33/1) are on the list of possible candidates to land the prestigious award.
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